Ty’s Take April 2019

First, I want to thank all of the people who made our video series a resounding success. As of the time I'm writing this, one of the videos has almost 2,500 views, and several of them top 1,000. So thank you!!! This month seemed relatively uneventful has a whole, but certainly reflected some undercurrents playing out in the market. However, I think...
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U.S. Does Not Renew Sanctions Waivers

As largely predicted, on April 22, 2019, the United States announced that it would end sanctions waivers to those countries previously granted waivers to purchase Iranian crude. Already, U.S. sanctions have had an impact on Iranian oil exports. However, eight countries had been granted exemptions and allowed to continue importing Iranian crude. The...
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Will a Wave of Consolidation Hit the Shell Patch?

In our Five Minute Fridays series, we discussed the Chevron offer for Anadarko. At the time (link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFyUzEZiZHE ). At the time, the details of their merger were pretty clear: Chevron plans to acquire Anadarko Petroleum in a cash and stock deal the company valued at $33 billion. The transaction values Anadarko at $65 p...
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Ty’s Take for March 2019


The article this edition I most enjoyed writing was on U.S.-Sino relations. I believe the topic to be much more complex than a simple article allows and I find it fascinating. Suffice it to say, I truly believe we are not just looking at a simple concern of balancing a trade deficit (or more likely narrowing it) but with competing claims to U.S. Gl...
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NOPEC?? Will the U.S. Pass Anti-OPEC legislation?


Every few years it seems that some elected representative puts some proposed legislation forward to ban OPEC and stop its ability to manipulate oil pricing. Usually, this legislation follows a period of increasing oil prices and seeks to subject governments who are otherwise exempt from anti-trust rules to our laws concerning anti-trust. The argume...
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Oil Markets: U.S Economy Update


In this article, we look at two things: the state of the U.S. economy as a whole and what we see developing in oil markets. The state of the U.S. economy is a key driver of oil demand.Stubbornly, oil markets have finally moved back into backwardation (meaning traders finally believe that by the end of the year, there will be more demand than supply...
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OPEC Update


As discussed in the last edition of The Five Star Standard , OPEC agreed to production cuts lead primarily by Saudi Arabia.As I noted, it was a bit of an uneasy truce and agreement among OPEC members.But as also noted in prior articles, Saudi Arabia took the laboring ore. OPEC was originally scheduled for an extraordinary meeting in Vienna April 17...
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U.S China Tradewar - A Small Business Perspective


Copious amounts have been written about the ongoing dialogue between the United States and China as they attempt to resolve their trade dispute.Many commentators have noted the ongoing strategic nature of the negotiations, both in terms of trade and in terms of other issues raised by U.S.-Sino relations, including but not limited to exertion of inf...
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Ty's Take January 2019

Last month, I sent you all my outlook and market predictions for 2019. In that analysis, I spent a great deal of time focused on the supply side of the equation. In short, I predicted that continued growth in U.S. Shale production, coupled with OPEC+ (referring to OPEC members + Russia and others who had agreed to production cuts) rapidly rising pr...
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OPEC+ Cuts: Are They Enough

When I sent out the 2019 Market Outlook , OPEC+ had just agreed to cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day in an effort to help re-balance the market. At the time I sent the email, the general amount of the cuts were agreed, but the amount each member would cut had yet to be determined. What was agreed to: OPEC would cut 800,000 barrels and Russia + it...
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